Monday, 12 October 2020

Surprising convergance and veganism

Related: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/omoZDu8ScNbot6kXS/beware-surprising-and-suspicious-convergence

it's unlikely that veganism is the best diet for animal welfare and for the environment and for individual health and for taste. Mainly because when you're optimising for one thing (reducing harm to animals) it's unlikely you would also find the best way to eat healthy, or have the best taste.

In other words, from the set of all possible diets, searching for the global optimum for one factor, is unlikely to lead to the global optimum for all other factors.
So for veganism, it is conceivable that is has lower carbon footprint than regular diets, but it would be surprising if it had the lowest footprint of all possible diets.

But it could be the case that we care about all these and that on aggregate, veganism is the best diet.
I.e. if our utility function looks like this F(animal welfare environment + individual health + taste) assuming we care about these equally (we don't) I could imagine veganism as one of, or even the, best.

Made up numbers below

Diet X: 10A + 10E + 10H 10T = 40
Veganism: 8A + 7E + 7H + 5T = 27
Regular diet: 2A + 4E + 5H + 9T = 20
Healthiest diet: 4A + 4E + 10H + 6T = 24

Where A= animal welfare, E= Environment, H= Health, and T= Taste.

I don't think animal advocates usually believe in this, but in the naive version of "Veganism is the best diet on all factors." And that makes me wary of other claims they make like how it's better because plant-based diets reduce antibiotic resistance and ditto pandemics. Or that going vegan may be better in the long-term because of moral circle expansion.

However, this should make us cautious, not dismissive. A small update against self-serving claims is justified, but complete dismissal risks ignoring factors that make animal advocacy higher on the importance scale.

Monday, 28 September 2020

This video reduces bias by 19% after two months

In Debiasing Decisions: Improved Decision Making With A Single Training Intervention they found that a 30-minute video reduced confirmation bias, fundamental attribution error, and bias blind spot, by 19%.
The video is super cheesy, and that makes me suspicious. But the large effect size prompts me to believe.

It should be noted that playing a 60-minute "debiasing" game debiased people more than the video. 

I tried finding tests for these biases so that I can do it myself, but I didn't find any.  :(


The rest of this short post is random thoughts about debiasing.



I tried finding tests for these biases so that I can do it myself, but I didn't find any. This made me worry that we don't have standardized tests for biases, which strikes me as bad. Although I didn't spend too much time looking into it.


I don't think training people to reduce 3 biases a time is a good way to go, since we have 100s of biases. If we use a taxonomy like Arkes (1991) (strategy-based, association-based, and psychophysical errors).  Maybe we could have three interventions for each type of bias? But it's not clear how you would teach people to avoid say association-based biases by lecturing about it.
You could nudge them in small ways. From Arkes (1991)

For example, subjects in their third study were presented with the story of David, a high school senior who had to choose between a small liberal arts college and an Ivy League university. Several of David's friends who were attending one of the two schools provided information that seemed to favor quite strongly the liberal arts college. However, a visit by David to each school provided him with contrary information. Should David rely on the advice of his many friends (a large sample) or on his own 1-day impressions of each school (a very small sample)? Other subjects were given the same scenario with the addition of a paragraph that made them "explicitly aware of the role of chance in determining the impression one may get from a small sample" (Nisbett et al., 1983, p. 353). Namely, David drew up a list for each school of the classes and activities that might interest him during his visit there, and then he blindly dropped a pencil on the list, choosing to do those things on the list where the pencil point landed. These authors found that if the chance factors that influenced David's personal evidence base were made salient in this way, subjects would be more likely to answer questions about the scenario in a probabilistic manner (i.e, rely on the large sample provided by many friends) than if the chance factors were not made salient. Such hints, rather than blatant instruction, can provide routes to a debiasing behavior in some problems

 In Sedlmeier & Gigerenzer they taught people Bayes by using frequencies rather than probabilities. E,g. Instead of saying (1% of people use drugs and they test positive 80% of the time while non-users 5% of the time), you say From 1000 people, 10 use drugs, 8 drug users test positive, while 50 non-users test positive). 

It seems to work.


If it's really hard, we should target really bad, really harmful biases. 
From here


..many of the known predictors of conspiracy belief are alterable. One of these predictors is the tendency to make errors in logical and probabilistic reasoning (Brotherton & French, 2014), and another is the tendency toward magical thinking (e.g., Darwin et al., 2011; Newheiser et al., 2011; Stieger et al., 2013; Swami et al., 2011). It is not clear whether these tendencies can be corrected (Eckblad & Chapman, 1983; Peltzer, 2003), but evidence suggests that they can be reduced by training in logic and in probability specifically (e.g., Agnoli & Krantz, 1989; Sedlmeier & Gigerenzer, 2001). The current findings suggest that interventions targeting the automatic attribution of intentionality may be effective in reducing the tendency to believe in conspiracy theories.
Perhaps finding out which are the worst biases, and what are the best interventions for them are would be useful. But increasing the effectiveness of changing beliefs is potentially dangerous, so maybe not.

Friday, 25 September 2020

The most horrifying thing I did

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dc3bwCjM9HzZcq9M8/so-you-say-you-re-an-altruist?commentId=Fusz5HB2gGtpdCZEx

I.

A slow morning as school was about to end, a boy suggested that we should all skip school the other day. Everyone seemed to be on board, but a thought crossed my head. 
"I will go to school whether you like it or not" I proclaimed.

Now if you never went to our school you may not know this, but the whole class skipping school, had fewer punishments than the whole class but one, skipping school. So by saying I will go to school, I was increasing their punishments.

"Why the fuck would you do that!" Asked someone.

"Because I want to."

I really disliked my classmates, they were bullies. Well some of them were.

I adjusted my seat and put on the most serious face I could.

"I will come to school tomorrow, and I don't care what you do" 

They couldn't believe someone would waste a day just to punish them.

They argued and argued, but in the end, it seemed like they canceled their plans.

The next morning all of them showed up, except one.

II.

That day I had already decided I didn't want to go to school tomorrow, I didn't like school, and since it was Wednesday, I would've gotten a three-day weekend. A three-day weekend is a big deal. So when a boy suggested all the class also take one, it ruined my plan. You don't get punished for skipping school now and then, but if all the class also didn't come. You get punished (usually by canceling P.E or with extra H.W)


I wasn't gonna let some kid ruin my plan, so... So I thought I would convince everyone to come to school and skip it myself. Now I usually don't defect in prisoner's dilemmas, that's not very EA. But I didn't know about EA, but I knew some decision theory.

It all seemed rational. It was rational. 
Skipping alone has no consequences, and it provides a vacation. Me +2
Skipping together means some punishment, but it's better than school. Everyone +1
Skipping all but one means a lot of punishment. Everyone -2


class 
Me 
class
(attend)
class
(skip)
Me
(attend)
0
0
-2
-2
Me
(skip)
0
+2
+1
+1

I told everyone we will move to the second quadrant, where we all lose 2. Their rational response would be to avoid that and attend school. If the class is attending, then my rational response would be to skip.

And let me tell you, it felt great.

I've been reading too much Machiavelli at the time. I'm glad I'm older and wiser now. I'm friends with some of my middle-school classmates now, and they're fun!











Sunday, 30 August 2020

Government related resource list

In almost all of 80k hour's problem profiles, government and policy are presented as possible career paths to make an impact on a top problem.
During my (still ongoing) research I came upon tens of books, articles, videos, and courses. I made a list of most of these resources. 

NOTE: I haven't read most of these.


 China


  • Mao's Last Revolution by Roderick MacFarquhar
  • People's Trilogy by Frank Dikötter

  • China in World History by Paul S. Ropp*
  • Destined for War by Graham Allison*
  • Age of Ambition by Evan Osnos
  • The Early Chinese Empires by Mark Edward Lewis
  • https://www.coursera.org/learn/china-culture-contemporary
  • When China Rules the World by Martin Jacques
  • China: A New History by John King Fairbank

War and history


  • Simulating War by Philip Sabin
  • Man, the State, and War by Kenneth N. Waltz
  • Technology and War by Martin van Creveld
  • A People’s Tragedy by Orlando Figes
  • The Logic of American Nuclear Strategy by Matthew Kroenig
  • The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by John J. Mearsheimer
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U__aABPb4BM
  • Strategy: A History by Lawrence Freedman
  • Hiroshima by John Hersey
  • Arms and Influence by Thomas Schelling
  • The Strategy of Conflict by Thomas Schelling
  • Strategy by B.H. Liddell Hart
  • Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World by Jack Weatherford
  • History of the Peloponnesian War by Thucydides 
  • Counterinsurgency Warfare by David Galula
  • Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945 by 
  • A Peace to End All Peace by David Fromkin
  • The Prince by Niccolò Machiavelli
  • The Art of War by Sun Tzu

  • The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William L. Shirer
  • Women's Work by Elizabeth Wayland Barber
  • On War by Carl von Clausewitz
  • Debt by David Graeber
  • Churchill, Hitler and "The Unnecessary War"P. J. Buchanan
  • The Guns of August by Barbara W. Tuchman
  • Unbroken by Laura Hillenbrand
  • Strategy by B.H. Liddell Hart 
  • Just and Unjust Wars by Michael Walzer

  • The Pursuit of Power by William H. McNeill


Economics and Development


Global Politics



Policy and general issues


 

Other


Cities

More Lists

https://www.draliceevans.com/gender-history-books 

https://apcss.org/apcss-library/military-pro-reading-lists/http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/trachtenberg/guide/Cohen%20core%20readings.htmhttps://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/departments/warstudies/incoming-students/readinghttps://myemail.constantcontact.com/Georgetown-Security-Studies-Program-Summer-Reading-List.html?soid=1114009586911&aid=s68CAR7G4ikhttps://static.dma.mil/usaf/csafreadinglist/https://www.k-state.edu/securitystudies/phdprogram/PoliticalScienceCompExamReadingList.pdf

Thursday, 30 July 2020

Starting a charity

Charity entrepreneurship has great sources on this.

A book and a course

Plath, Lazarus, and suicide.

I found a recording of Ariel (the collection) read by the lady herself, Sylvia Plath. My favorite is Lady Lazarus, which I thought referred to Emily Lazarus (give me your tired, your poor, you huddled masses) but it actually refers to Lazarus of Bethany, whom Jesus resurrected after his death. Resurrection is a prominent theme in the poem and it refers to her failed suicide attempts. 


Lady Lazarus

I have done it again.   
One year in every ten   
I manage it——

A sort of walking miracle, my skin   
Bright as a Nazi lampshade,   
My right foot

A paperweight,
My face a featureless, fine   
Jew linen.

Peel off the napkin   
O my enemy.   
Do I terrify?——

The nose, the eye pits, the full set of teeth?   
The sour breath
Will vanish in a day.

Soon, soon the flesh
The grave cave ate will be   
At home on me

And I a smiling woman.   
I am only thirty.
And like the cat I have nine times to die.

This is Number Three.   
What a trash
To annihilate each decade.

What a million filaments.   
The peanut-crunching crowd   
Shoves in to see

Them unwrap me hand and foot——
The big strip tease.   
Gentlemen, ladies

These are my hands   
My knees.
I may be skin and bone,

Nevertheless, I am the same, identical woman.   
The first time it happened I was ten.   
It was an accident.

The second time I meant
To last it out and not come back at all.   
I rocked shut

As a seashell.
They had to call and call
And pick the worms off me like sticky pearls.

Dying
Is an art, like everything else.   
I do it exceptionally well.

I do it so it feels like hell.   
I do it so it feels real.
I guess you could say I’ve a call.

It’s easy enough to do it in a cell.
It’s easy enough to do it and stay put.   
It’s the theatrical

Comeback in broad day
To the same place, the same face, the same brute   
Amused shout:

‘A miracle!’
That knocks me out.   
There is a charge

For the eyeing of my scars, there is a charge   
For the hearing of my heart——
It really goes.

And there is a charge, a very large charge   
For a word or a touch   
Or a bit of blood

Or a piece of my hair or my clothes.   
So, so, Herr Doktor.   
So, Herr Enemy.

I am your opus,
I am your valuable,   
The pure gold baby

That melts to a shriek.   
I turn and burn.
Do not think I underestimate your great concern.

Ash, ash—
You poke and stir.
Flesh, bone, there is nothing there——

A cake of soap,   
A wedding ring,   
A gold filling.

Herr God, Herr Lucifer   
Beware
Beware.

Out of the ash
I rise with my red hair   
And I eat men like air.


Thursday, 23 July 2020

Blattman: On writing

In a blogpost, the legendary Chris Blattman wrote about the things he usually tells undergrads #2 was
Learn how to write well. Take writing seriously. Consider a course in creative, non-fiction, journalism, or business writing. Read books on writing. You won’t regret it.
 
In that spirit, I compiled a bunch of related content. Start with *

Economical Writing by Deirdre McCloskey

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SiGY7aah56HvGXxBJ/rhetoric-for-the-good*

http://matt.might.net/articles/books-papers-materials-for-graduate-students/

https://dynamicecology.wordpress.com/2012/11/14/clear-writing/

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2006/10/how-to-write-well.html*

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1978/03/writing-typing-and-economics/305165/*

https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:WitsX+WCMx+3T2019/courseware/3307bf339d6843dbaa2e1cd32cc5e474/0fa79cad6ad24feea333fe138efd55bb/?child=first*

https://www.coursera.org/learn/academic-literacy/lecture/V2XQj/being-critical*


https://oxford.academia.edu/WilliamMacAskill/Teaching-Documents

https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/papers/phd_paper_writing.pdf

https://courses.edx.org/courses/course-v1:WitsX+WCMx+3T2019/course/

https://www.coursera.org/specializations/english-for-research-publication-purposes

https://www.coursera.org/learn/advanced-writing?specialization=academic-english
https://www.coursera.org/learn/introduction-to-research-for-essay-writing?specialization=academic-english

Monday, 13 July 2020

Tyler Cowen's advice to Econ PhD students

A few days ago I was listening to a conversation between Patrick Collison, Mark Zuckerberg, and Tyler Cowen.  A quote grabbed my attention as I'm an aspiring econ student myself. Transcript


I think in general, big questions are under-studied. The tenure system, I think, increasingly is broken. A lot of academics do work pretty hard, but that so much of your audience is a narrowly defined set of peers who write you reference and tenure letters, I think we need to change. And the incentive for academics to integrate with practitioners and learn from them and actually try doing things, we need more of that. I’ve often suggested for graduate school, instead of taking a class, everyone should be sent to a not-so-high-income village for two weeks. They can do whatever they want. Just go for two weeks, think about things. No one wants to do this. No one wants to experiment with it. People who do development often do it on their own. But the notion that every economist should have studied the East Asian economic miracle, the Industrial Revolution, and spent two weeks or more in a poor village — it’s just not how things are, and I’d like to change that.
So I searched for some actions based on this advice, and since I don't plan on going to a poor village any time soon. Thoughts on (going to a poor village) welcome.

I collected some sources I thought were relevant.

Books on the East Asian miracle

  1. How Asia Works by Studwell
  2. MITI and the Japanese Miracle: The Growth of Industrial Policy by Chalmers Johnson
  3. Books on Chinese history: e.g. China in World History by Paul S. Ropp

Books on the Industrial revolution


  1.  The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective by Allen*
  2.  The Enlightened Economy: An Economic History of Britain 1700-1850 by Mokyr
  3. This paper by Crafts discuss both Allen's and Mokyr's views 
  4. The Most Powerful Idea in the World William Rosen
  5.  The Industrial Revolution in World History by Peter N. Stearns
  6. Documentary series on the Industrial Rev (bad resolution ~240p )
  7. Article by History.com on the Industrial Rev (beware auto videos ads. Mute the tab)


Poor village part

More books here**

* In the EA forum link** you can find an abridged version of Allen's book.

sources:
https://historyofmassachusetts.org/best-books-about-industrial-revolution/